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Autonomy timeline

How long a task AI can autonomously complete has grown, model by model.

Oct 2026PROJECTED
2.5 days
95% CI 2.2 days – 3.0 days
?
projected task horizon (2024+ trend, 2x / ~107 days)
8.0 hrs14.5 hrs1.0 days4.0 days7.0 days14.0 days30.0 daysReplace a junior dev for a day8 hoursPrototype an MVP from scratch12 hoursRun a full QA cycle solo1 dayBuild a complete SaaS app2 daysMigrate a legacy codebase4 daysReplace a small dev team for a week1 weekArchitect and ship a product2 weeks?2.5 days
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AI could handle (projected)

Autocomplete a sentence2.4 seconds
Answer a question30 seconds
Write a short email1 minute
Fix a bug from a stack trace3.5 minutes
Write tests for a module10 minutes
Review and refactor a PR30 minutes
Build a landing page from a design1 hour
Add auth to an existing app2 hours
Build and deploy a REST API4 hours
Replace a junior dev for a day8 hours
Prototype an MVP from scratch12 hours
Run a full QA cycle solo1 day
Build a complete SaaS app2 days

Not yet

Migrate a legacy codebase4 days
Replace a small dev team for a week1 week